Wireless is on course to overtake wired as the main broadband access platform, according to analysis and data in WiMAX Broadband Convergence: Emerging Fixed, Portable & Mobile Revenue Opportunities, a new report from Informa Telecoms & Media.

The worldwide broadband market is currently dominated by wired broadband platforms such as DSL and cable, and those platforms will continue to support the majority of broadband subscribers in the medium term. However, much of the growth in the broadband market going forward will come via wireless technologies such as WiMAX, HSDPA, EV-DO and their evolutions. Some of these technologies are already widely deployed while other are just coming to market, but Informa Telecoms & Media expects deployments and subscriber takeup of most wireless broadband platforms to increase significantly in future as technologies and services improve and costs decline.

In fact wireless broadband platforms-including WiMAX, HSPA, EV-DO and their evolutions-will account for 49% of all broadband subscribers worldwide by 2012, up significantly from 17% in 2007, as highlighted in the figure below.

Click here to view chart: 'Total Broadand Subscribers Worldwide, 2007 - 2012'

The number of wired broadband subscribers using DSL, cable, FTTx and other wired systems will continue to increase throughout the forecast period, but the rate of growth will slow as more developed and developing markets reach saturation. However, it should be noted that wired broadband saturation in developing markets will often be relative to the number of wired access lines available rather than to households or population, which is an indication of the limited coverage of wired access networks in many developing countries. This lack of wired infrastructure is also a clear opportunity for wireless broadband technologies such as WiMAX, EV-DO and HSPA.

In the US and some other markets, WiMAX will have to overcome the challenges of being a new entrant in a converging broadband market competing with a variety of incumbent systems including DSL, cable, EV-DO and HSPA. In general, the leading wired broadband systems have the ability to offer higher speeds and lower prices than new entrants such as WiMAX, albeit without mobility, while systems such as EV-DO and HSPA typically offer better coverage and mobility than WiMAX, but with potentially higher prices and lower data speeds.

WiMAX is a true broadband convergence technology in that a single 802.16e-2005 platform can be used to support fixed, nomadic, portable and mobile broadband services. In addition, many incumbent fixed and mobile broadband operators are planning to use WiMAX to help provide integrated broadband services with widespread and eventually seamless coverage from multiple wired and wireless access networks. These trends mean that WiMAX can only be fully understood in the context of the entire broadband market including all major wired and wireless broadband platforms.

WIMAX SUBSCRIBER & REVENUE FORECASTS

The WiMAX market is at an early stage but has gained significant momentum in the last year - particularly since August 2006, when Sprint Nextel unveiled plans for a US$2.5-3 billion Mobile WiMAX deployment in the US. There are many other large and small WiMAX operators worldwide, but Sprint Nextel's move was critical since it was the first major, multi-billion dollar commitment by a tier one operator to deploy Mobile WiMAX. That in turn has effectively guaranteed that WiMAX will break out of its traditional fixed wireless niche to play a larger role in the worldwide broadband market. It has also guaranteed that the supply of equipment and devices - one of the key constraints in the market for any new telecoms system - will be accelerated.

On the demand side, it almost goes without saying that WiMAX will benefit from the strong demand for broadband access worldwide, particularly in developing markets, where supply constraints have led to a pent-up demand for high-speed services. On the other hand, WiMAX faces competition from other wireless systems positioning to meet this demand, including EV-DO and HSDPA.

After considering these and other global factors, as well as a host of other issues specific to particular regions and operators, Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that WiMAX subscribers worldwide will increase from 4.23 million in 2007 to 65.63 million in 2012, representing a CAGR of 73% over the forecast period. Asia Pacific will be the leading region virtually throughout the forecast period, given the combination of early Mobile WiMAX deployments in South Korea and Australia, and WiMAX fixed networks in many developing markets in the region, notably India and Pakistan. However North America will not be far behind Asia-Pacific, given the major rollout plans of Sprint Nextel and Clearwire.

WiMAX revenues are also set to increase significantly. Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that WiMAX equipment and service revenues worldwide will increase from US$3.36 billion in 2007 to US$31.45 billion in 2012, as highlighted in the figure below.

Click here to view chart: 'WiMAX Revenues Worldwide by Type, 2007 - 2012'