As shown by Vodafone's recent HSDPA launch, operators are racing to roll out mobile broadband services, which will lead 3.5G subscribers worldwide to boom from 2.5 million at the end of 2006 to more than 200 million in 2010, according to Future Mobile Broadband: HSPA, EV-DO, WiMAX & LTE, a new strategic report from Informa Telecoms & Media.

HSDPA will account for 65% of 3.5G mobile broadband subscribers worldwide in 2011, followed by HSUPA with 19%, EV-DO Revision A (EV-DOrA) with 13% and EV-DO Revision B (EV-DOrB) with 3%, according to the Future Mobile Broadband report. The top two regions for HSDPA subscribers through 2011 will be Western Europe followed by Asia-Pacific, with North America a distant third. Asia-Pacific will account for the majority of EV-DOrA/B subscribers through 2011, followed by North America.

Vodafone has just launched HSDPA services in the UK but it is far from alone. There are already 34 live HSDPA networks worldwide and another 43 in deployment, just six months after the first HSDPA service was launched. Most WCDMA operators have clearly decided that the benefits of upgrading to HSDPA including download speeds of 1-2Mbps compared to 384Kbps for WCDMA, and much lower latency are well worth the costs, particularly given the emergence of competing systems such as EV-DOrA/B and Mobile WiMAX.

In fact the success of EV-DO mobile broadband services has driven some competing WCDMA operators to upgrade to HSDPA, which in turn is leading EV-DO operators to upgrade to EV-DOrA, as detailed in several of the nine operator case studies included in Future Mobile Broadband. For example Verizon Wireless launched EV-DO in September 2003 and the success of its BroadbandAccess EV-DO service helped drive Cingular Wireless to launch the world's first commercial HSDPA service in December 2005. Now Verizon is trialing EV-DOrA and rival Sprint Nextel plans to launch EV-DOrA services in 1Q07. Sprint Nextel also plans to leapfrog the competition by launching what it calls a mobile broadband service by 2008 using its 2.5GHz spectrum and an advanced technology such as Flash-OFDM, EV-DOrC, TD-CDMA, 3G Long-Term Evolution, Mobile WiMAX or WiBro.

However the transition to broadband creates as many challenges as it does opportunities for mobile broadband operators. These range from major strategic challenges such as how to successfully navigate convergence and competition with fixed broadband providers, to key operational challenges such as when and how to launch mobile broadband services, what end-user segments to target with what devices and at what prices, and how to differentiate services in an increasingly competitive market featuring incumbent fixed and mobile operators as well as new entrants using new technologies operating in new spectrum.

Mobile infrastructure and component suppliers face as many challenges as mobile operators, and will have to make major strategic moves to establish strong positions in the emerging mobile broadband and convergence markets, as detailed in several of the seven infrastructure vendor case studies included in Future Mobile Broadband. For example, in the infrastructure market Nokia is merging with Siemens Communications and Alcatel with Lucent, so other mid-tier vendors such as Motorola and Nortel will have to respond soon.

In addition, a lack of compelling devices and content led to delayed launches and slow take-up of WCDMA and EV-DO services, and early HSDPA and EV-DOrA services are expected to suffer from the very same problems. Most HSDPA services are launching with only PC cards and notebooks, although early handsets will start to arrive later this year. However it is striking that as of May no major vendor has unveiled plans for EV-DOrA handsets, although data cards are on the way.

A lack of a wide range of compelling handsets will slow mass-market takeup of 3.5G mobile broadband services in 2006-07, but handsets will start to mature in 2008, leading to a sharp increase in 3.5G handset sales and subscribers in 2008-09, according to Future Mobile Broadband device and subscriber forecasts.

Mobile WiMAX will play a relatively minor role in the mobile broadband market through 2011, largely because Mobile WiMAX notebooks and handheld devices will not arrive in volume until 2008-09 at the earliest, according to Future Mobile Broadband. But that should not obscure the fact that WiMAX will gain significant momentum in the fixed, nomadic and portable broadband segments in 2006-11.

For more information on Future Mobile Broadband, a new report from Informa Telecoms & Media, please click here.

Future Mobile Broadband: HSPA, EV-DO, WiMAX & LTE provides more than 300 pages of in-depth analysis of the current and future mobile broadband market worldwide, with an emphasis on the key underlying technologies namely HSDPA, HSUPA, EV-DO Revision A, EV-DO Revision B and Mobile WiMAX. Detailed forecasts are provided for mobile broadband subscribers and devices for 2006-11, with full segmentation by region and technology, with the latter including HSDPA, HSUPA, EV-DOrA and EV-DOrB. Mobile broadband device forecasts are further segmented into handsets and notebook devices, and are underpinned by forecasts for handset average selling prices and bill of materials for 2006-11.

The key value chain segments covered in Future Mobile Broadband includes standards & technologies, infrastructure, devices and services.  Each of these areas is further segmented by region and key technology (HSPA, EV-DOr0/A/B and WiMAX) as part of a complete value chain analysis that focuses on the competitive status, strategies and outlook for mobile broadband operators, infrastructure suppliers, device makers and component suppliers.

Future Mobile Broadband includes operator case studies of Vodafone, T-Mobile, O2, Eurotel Praha, Verizon Wireless, Cingular Wireless, SK Telecom, NTT DoCoMo and KDDI; infrastructure vendor case studies on Alcatel, Ericsson, Lucent, Motorola, Nokia, Nortel and Siemens; and chipset supplier case studies on Qualcomm, Ericsson Mobile Platform, Freescale, Texas Instruments, Agere Systems and Icera.

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