On Tuesday, Verizon Wireless' CEO, Lowell McAdam, announced that Big Red will start selling the iPhone 4 from Feb. 10. Given the iPhone's habit of consuming operator device subsidy and marketing budgets, Informa Telecoms & Media sees this as having the most negative impact on Motorola Mobility.

Physically, the iPhone 4 that Verizon will sell is very similar to the UMTS version, albeit with an additional antenna notch which reduces the "death grip" problem suffered on the UMTS iPhone 4. There are some different characteristics due to the use of CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev. A technology. For instance, you cannot use both voice and data on 3G technologies on the CDMA iPhone 4, and international roaming can be somewhat problematic; however, it does offer subscribers the option to use it as a mobile hotspot for up to five devices as standard. Full pricing has not yet been revealed by Verizon, but it is likely to be in line with those levied by AT&T.

So, who wins and who loses from the iPhone 4?

Winners

Apple

Informa Telecoms & Media estimates that Apple sold almost 20 million iPhones in the US during 2010, accounting for half of its global sales. All this was achieved while the devices were still being sold exclusively from only one US operator.

Adding Verizon's 94 million subscribers doubles Apple's addressable market and it seems only a matter of time before Apple launches with the remaining US operators and CDMA operators worldwide. This scale should, in time, help reduce what is likely to be a higher COG (cost of goods) on the CDMA iPhone 4. In the longer term, Apple could look to develop an LTE iPhone, however, as mentioned by Apple's COO Tim Cook on Tuesday, "first-generation LTE chipsets force some design compromises".

However, once the iPhone does become widely available and operators are driven to compete on price, Apple's current business model will be brought into question. Selling a commodity which allows zero operator differentiation is not an attractive proposition for the operators, particularly as the iPhone's user experience is no longer a step ahead of its chief competitors using Android. Furthermore, all application revenues bypass the operator. Apple's options include allowing some customization and opening up its ecosystem to outside innovation, which seems unlikely at the moment, or - as it achieved with the iPod - to create new device models which can effectively address different market segments.

Verizon Wireless

Verizon can finally offer the leading smartphone to its subscriber base, combining it with "America's most reliable network" to give what should be a compelling proposition.

It will be interesting to see how "Big Red" manages the balancing act between the iPhone 4 and its other smartphones, particularly those under the Droid brand. Verizon was enjoying some notable successes with its "Droid does" campaign. Perhaps it will be a little less confrontational now that it has an iPhone of its own to sell? Verizon is also likely to try and moderate its dependence on the iPhone.

Other non-iPhone operators worldwideClearly this opens the door to other US operators (T-Mobile USA, Sprint/Nextel and others) and CDMA operators worldwide to offer the iPhone, helping them compete with their rivals. It also enables Apple to address some of the 544 million CDMA subscribers worldwide that Informa Telecoms & Media estimates there were at end-2010.

Apple's suppliers (component and manufacturers)The increase in addressable market for the iPhone will clearly be a boon for Apple's iPhone supply chain, not only for Qualcomm, which supplies the baseband, but also the iPhone's manufacturer, Foxconn.

Losers

Motorola Mobility

Much of Motorola's recent smartphone success has been helped by strong support at Verizon. It is true that the company has been promoting its non-US handset successes recently, most notably during its 3Q10 earnings call, and the company's new Xoom and Atrix devices look impressive. However, it's likely that the newly-formed Motorola Mobility will have a challenging 1H11 as the iPhone 4 seems certain to consume a significant portion of Verizon's subsidy and marketing budgets.

Microsoft

Although Microsoft's deep pockets are likely to increase marketing spend during 2011, Microsoft's WP7 risks being lost in the hype with most attention falling on the iPhone and its Android rivals. Microsoft will need to do something special in 1H11 to keep US consumer attention on WP7 devices, particularly when device vendors look to address the CDMA market in the US.

RIM

The impact on RIM at Verizon may also be unfavorable, although the Torch's exclusivity at AT&T may see that operator make a greater marketing push, thereby cushioning the blow. In addition, RIM continues to enjoy good sales with Sprint/Nextel.

AT&T

It seems certain that AT&T will see some churn to Verizon particularly where "Big Red" can offer better coverage. However, given contract lengths, this is likely to be limited and, ironically, may even help improve the AT&T network performance for the remaining AT&T subscribers.

In addition, AT&T plans to launch 20 LTE smartphones from several vendors during 2011. This should help mitigate some of the churn it may suffer to Verizon.

Google

Thanks to its wide vendor support, Google's Android seems certain to continue its growth, despite Apple being Verizons new BFF. While the iPhone 4 on Verizon is certain to tempt some away from the Android platform, its price positioning means it only really competes with high-end smartphones. This leaves Android to dominate the low-end smartphone market.

Perhaps more concerning is the way that the iPhone's availability from the two largest US operators will highlight the upgrade headache which still plagues many Android smartphones. This must be addressed or, in the long term, consumers may start to lose patience with the platform.

ZTE

Although not a direct loser from the iPhone 4 at Verizon, ZTE's Peel case which can transform an iPod Touch into a pseudo-iPhone is likely to be hit whenever Apple's CDMA iPhone 4 makes its way to Sprint. However, in the meantime, there may even be an upside for the Chinese vendor as Sprint customers take advantage of this low-cost means to join the Apple experience.